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Mister Answer Man:  Special NHL Playoffs Edition (First Round)!

Dear Mister Answer Man:  Two weeks ago, you predicted that the Devils would beat the Rangers in six, the Hurricanes would beat the Canadiens in five, the Senators would beat the Lightning in five, and the Sabres would beat the Flyers in six while chasing Robert Esche from the net.  In reality, however, the Devils beat the Rangers in four, the Hurricanes beat the Canadiens in six, the Senators beat the Lightning in five, and the Sabres beat the Flyers in six while chasing Esche from the net twice.  You’re probably all full of yourself for going 4-for-4, but I’d like to know—what went wrong? —J. Buccigross, Bristol, CT

Mister Answer Man replies:  Well, for starters, I didn’t think the Sabres would win 7-1 and 8-2 games in the same series.  So there’s that.  Apparently, speed kills!  It used to be, in the old NHL®, that speed killed unless you could trap it in the neutral zone or put a stick in its ribs and a hand on its back, but now it’s just plain “speed kills.” More importantly, I fouled up my Devils and Hurricanes predictions by forgetting about the Devils’ Patrik Elias (who turned in a fearsome performance in round one) and failing to discuss Martin Gerber and the Hurricanes’ goaltending prospects.  As for Elias:  I actually wrote “if the Rangers can stop tiny snipers Gomez and Gionta, they stop the Devils offense,” and this turned out to be quite wrong.  Had I realized that Elias would account for an insane eleven points in only four games against the Blueshirts, I would have called a sweep.  As for Gerber:  I actually wrote nothing about him, and thus failed to consider the possibility that he would give up nine goals on 34 shots in the first 75 minutes of ice time (a truly abysmal .735 save percentage).  Had I factored him in, I would have predicted ‘Canes in six with Cam Ward replacing Gerber after about 15 minutes of the first period in game two.  And don’t forget, when the ‘Canes switch horses in midstream, they go deep.  At least that’s what happened back in 2002, when they shuffled Kevin Weekes and Arturs Irbe in goal and wound up going to the Finals.

But you’re right, I didn’t foresee these things (I’m no Tony Snow, now), and I’ll try to do better from this point onward.

Dear Mister Answer Man:  Will Scott Lemieux stop by to talk about his picks in the West?  Apparently he thought the Oilers were incapable of upsetting the Red Wings.  Care to comment? —B. Melrose, Los Angeles, CA

Mister Answer Man replies:  As you know, Mr. Melrose (if that is your real name), Scott was the only person in North America not affiliated with the Colorado Avalanche who picked the Avs over the Stars.  And he did give himself some Upset Insurance by writing, “In terms of team quality, I don’t think an Oiler win would be a truly historic upset.  I think the 30-point differential is overstated by the fact that the Northwest divison has 5 good teams while the Central only has 2; I’m not fully convinced that the Red Wings are a great team as opposed to a very, very good team in a shitty division.” It turns out that it really does matter whether you play twenty-four of your games against struggling minor-league franchises like Chicago, Columbus, and St. Louis (against whom the Red Wings went 7-1, 7-1, and 7-1; they were merely 4-4 against Nashville) or whether you play formidable opponents like Calgary, Colorado, Vancouver and Minnesota all year (against whom the Oilers went 3-5, 5-3, 6-2, and 2-6).  In other words, Detroit had 25 divisional wins and Edmonton only 16, so there’s eighteen of those thirty points right there.  (Detroit and Edmonton split their season series 2-2, and the first three games were decided in OT.  Mismatch?  What mismatch?) Scott also picked the Sharks in five; the Sharks won in five.  But I think Scott won’t be available for comment until the conclusion of the Flames-Ducks game tonight.  All I can say about Scott’s beloved Flames right now is that Scott did, in fact, predict that the series would go seven.

Credit where credit is due, though:  back on April 7, the reader named “ash” (comment 50) wrote, “I’ve watched Detroit this year, and they are very reminiscent of the Detroit of the late 90’s: lots of talent, lots of regular season points, going in the tank in the playoffs.” Then again, ash also wrote, “On the other hand, the Stars are operating at full-tilt—Turco is playing well, and he’s backed up by Johan Hedburg who will be a big-time goalie one of these days. They will be going to the conference finals IF they get past Edmonton.” That was back when it looked as if the first round would include a Dallas-Edmonton series.  Prognosticatin’ is hard work!

And we’ll have more tomorrow Friday after Scott recovers from the Flames’ flameout, everyone!  So stay tuned to this Prognosticatin’ Station.

Posted by on 05/03 at 02:38 PM

  1. I had the good fortune of being in a bar/restaurant in Nelson BC Monday night when the Oiler’s scored the tying and winning goals in that frenzied wild third period, i felt out of place.  The people around me were clearly out of their minds.  Fortunately sanity seemed to return in the next couple of hours when the Flames pulled off yet another amazing loss.  I am very happy to be back in the US, these Canuks take hockey way too seriously; much like their baseball cousins in Boston.  The captcha word is “human” but i find that may not adequately represent the netherworld like love of hockey of those north of the border.

    Posted by  on  05/03  at  05:10 PM

  2. Clearly out of their minds?  Hey, spyder, the Oilers scored four in the third period after managing only two shots on goal in the second (Detroit outshot them 17-2 and refused to let them touch the puck for about ten minutes).  I’m willing to bet that during the second intermission, every Oiler fan west of Flin Flon was thinking, “we will lose this game, and then we will lose game seven in Detroit.” (That’s certainly what I thought!) They had scored only one third-period goal in the preceding five games, and while we’re talking about history, their last playoff series win came in 1997.  I’d say their reaction was perfectly understandable.  It’s not like they have baseball—or a nice long summer—to look forward to.

    Posted by  on  05/03  at  05:21 PM

  3. When I attempted to recreate the playoffs on EA’s NHL ‘06 for the X-Box in order to make good predictions for the final, all I learned was that I am very, very bad at video game hockey.

    Posted by  on  05/03  at  07:15 PM

  4. Am I now expected to be sober enough to make predictions tomorrow now?  That will be interesting...wink

    Posted by Scot Lemieux  on  05/04  at  01:41 AM

  5. Yo, Lemieux, take the day off.  That was some uglifferific offense your Flames displayed last night.  World-historical bad. I mean, I don’t think the puck went anywhere near the Ducks’ net for the final 40 minutes.  I watched the whole excruciating thing, and I feel your pain—or at least a faint version of it.

    Let’s resume the prognosticatin’ on Friday.

    Posted by Michael  on  05/04  at  07:44 AM

  6. Go Sharks. Go Replacements, sort of. They are supposed to be reforming except for the dead one.

    Posted by Bob in Pacifica  on  05/04  at  10:29 AM

  7. I had a finished a long comment and the blog ATE IT. So I’ll spit out the predictions and maybe retype the rest later.

    Ducks over Avalance in four.
    Edmonton over Sharks in six.

    Ducks over Oilers OR Sharks in five.

    Buffalo over Ottawa in six.
    Devils over Carolina in six, too.

    Devils over Buffalo in seven. (Devils lose to Ottawa tho.)

    Devils over Ducks in six for the cup.

    ash
    [’Saving the text this time.’]

    Posted by  on  05/04  at  04:14 PM

  8. “we will lose this game, and then we will lose game seven in Detroit.” Indeed that was the mumbling that was being uttered into the large quantities of ale and beers being consumed, up until five minutes or so into the third period. “We are doomed” seemed about par.  Then a metamorphosis worthy of Stevenson occurred and raving maniacal mutants took over the scene.

    Posted by  on  05/04  at  07:18 PM

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