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Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Mister Answer Man:  Special NHL Playoffs Edition (First Round)!

Dear Mister Answer Man:  Two weeks ago, you predicted that the Devils would beat the Rangers in six, the Hurricanes would beat the Canadiens in five, the Senators would beat the Lightning in five, and the Sabres would beat the Flyers in six while chasing Robert Esche from the net.  In reality, however, the Devils beat the Rangers in four, the Hurricanes beat the Canadiens in six, the Senators beat the Lightning in five, and the Sabres beat the Flyers in six while chasing Esche from the net twice.  You’re probably all full of yourself for going 4-for-4, but I’d like to know—what went wrong? —J. Buccigross, Bristol, CT

Mister Answer Man replies:  Well, for starters, I didn’t think the Sabres would win 7-1 and 8-2 games in the same series.  So there’s that.  Apparently, speed kills!  It used to be, in the old NHL®, that speed killed unless you could trap it in the neutral zone or put a stick in its ribs and a hand on its back, but now it’s just plain “speed kills.” More importantly, I fouled up my Devils and Hurricanes predictions by forgetting about the Devils’ Patrik Elias (who turned in a fearsome performance in round one) and failing to discuss Martin Gerber and the Hurricanes’ goaltending prospects.  As for Elias:  I actually wrote “if the Rangers can stop tiny snipers Gomez and Gionta, they stop the Devils offense,” and this turned out to be quite wrong.  Had I realized that Elias would account for an insane eleven points in only four games against the Blueshirts, I would have called a sweep.  As for Gerber:  I actually wrote nothing about him, and thus failed to consider the possibility that he would give up nine goals on 34 shots in the first 75 minutes of ice time (a truly abysmal .735 save percentage).  Had I factored him in, I would have predicted ‘Canes in six with Cam Ward replacing Gerber after about 15 minutes of the first period in game two.  And don’t forget, when the ‘Canes switch horses in midstream, they go deep.  At least that’s what happened back in 2002, when they shuffled Kevin Weekes and Arturs Irbe in goal and wound up going to the Finals.

But you’re right, I didn’t foresee these things (I’m no Tony Snow, now), and I’ll try to do better from this point onward.

Dear Mister Answer Man:  Will Scott Lemieux stop by to talk about his picks in the West?  Apparently he thought the Oilers were incapable of upsetting the Red Wings.  Care to comment? —B. Melrose, Los Angeles, CA

Mister Answer Man replies:  As you know, Mr. Melrose (if that is your real name), Scott was the only person in North America not affiliated with the Colorado Avalanche who picked the Avs over the Stars.  And he did give himself some Upset Insurance by writing, “In terms of team quality, I don’t think an Oiler win would be a truly historic upset.  I think the 30-point differential is overstated by the fact that the Northwest divison has 5 good teams while the Central only has 2; I’m not fully convinced that the Red Wings are a great team as opposed to a very, very good team in a shitty division.” It turns out that it really does matter whether you play twenty-four of your games against struggling minor-league franchises like Chicago, Columbus, and St. Louis (against whom the Red Wings went 7-1, 7-1, and 7-1; they were merely 4-4 against Nashville) or whether you play formidable opponents like Calgary, Colorado, Vancouver and Minnesota all year (against whom the Oilers went 3-5, 5-3, 6-2, and 2-6).  In other words, Detroit had 25 divisional wins and Edmonton only 16, so there’s eighteen of those thirty points right there.  (Detroit and Edmonton split their season series 2-2, and the first three games were decided in OT.  Mismatch?  What mismatch?) Scott also picked the Sharks in five; the Sharks won in five.  But I think Scott won’t be available for comment until the conclusion of the Flames-Ducks game tonight.  All I can say about Scott’s beloved Flames right now is that Scott did, in fact, predict that the series would go seven.

Credit where credit is due, though:  back on April 7, the reader named “ash” (comment 50) wrote, “I’ve watched Detroit this year, and they are very reminiscent of the Detroit of the late 90’s: lots of talent, lots of regular season points, going in the tank in the playoffs.” Then again, ash also wrote, “On the other hand, the Stars are operating at full-tilt—Turco is playing well, and he’s backed up by Johan Hedburg who will be a big-time goalie one of these days. They will be going to the conference finals IF they get past Edmonton.” That was back when it looked as if the first round would include a Dallas-Edmonton series.  Prognosticatin’ is hard work!

And we’ll have more tomorrow Friday after Scott recovers from the Flames’ flameout, everyone!  So stay tuned to this Prognosticatin’ Station.

Posted by Michael on 05/03 at 02:38 PM
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