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Tuesday, January 27, 2004

Primary identifications

With 87% in, New Hampshire looks like this:

Kerry 71,536 39%
Dean 47,847 26%
Clark 23,153 13%
Edwards 22,357 12%
Lieberman 16,179 9%

My prediction was, let me see now,

Kerry 36
Dean 22
Edwards 20
Clark 15
Lieberman 6

All right, so I was skeptical of the “Edwards surge” in Iowa but I believed it here.  Oops.  Otherwise, I’m within 3-4 percent on everybody.  Including the Reverend and Dennis K, who should now think of themselves as free to develop their many other talents.  (Apparently Lieberman thinks he has enough Joe-mentum to keep going, but why can’t he take that Joe-mentum someplace else?  Like, say, the NBA’s Atlantic Division:  it’s Joe-tastic!)

I can’t wait for Missouri, personally.  Other than that, all I can say is that I have no idea how these results will play out when we head south and west in the next two weeks-- but I do think the next two weeks will tell us most of what we need to know, and one thing we need to know is whether Clark or Edwards will win one of these things outright.

In the meantime, one quick suggestion:  maybe we can’t win in November with Dean voters alone, but there’s no way we take back the White House without them.  (I’ve given the man $$$ on a number of occasions but will be happy to support any of the Plausible Four against Bush.) So let’s remember that Dean supporters-- partly by themselves, and partly by way of the response they’ve generated among nonsupporters getting out there in the cold to vote for somebody else-- are largely responsible for these record turnouts in the early states, for the emergency spine implant in Kerry (let’s hope the body doesn’t reject it!), for the decline of the DLC as a rightward force in the party (after all, you can’t even spell decline without DLC), and for Edwards the Happy Populist.  If you’re a Democrat, say something nice to (or about) a Dean voter today!  You’ll be glad you did.

Posted by Michael on 01/27 at 04:55 PM
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