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Tuesday, November 02, 2004

VNS OCD

The 2 pm returns are good--

AZ:  Bush 55, Kerry 45
CO:  Bush 51, Kerry 48
LA:  Bush 57, Kerry 42
PA:  Kerry 60, Bush 40
OH:  Kerry 52, Bush 48
FL:  Kerry 51, Bush 48
IA:  Kerry 49, Bush 49
MI:  Kerry 51, Bush 47
MN:  Kerry 58, Bush 40
NH:  Kerry 57, Bush 41
NM:  Kerry 50, Bush 48
WI:  Kerry 52, Bush 43

but I’m told that the election is not decided on the first exit poll.  What will really be important are the final exit polls, which-- especially in Florida and Ohio-- will be the standard of comparison against which we can gauge the Diebold result.

I still say Kerry 294-244 EV, 50.7 - 48.4 in the popular vote (even though I really do want 51.5 and more) with 0.9 to Nadernarik.  And I just want to remind you all that although I was terrible beyond measure at predicting the outcome of the Super Bowl, I did pretty damn well in New Hampshire nine months ago, and of course I had the good sense to admit-- before the ACLS began-- that Red Sox had better starting pitching than the Yankees, too.

And don’t forget to keep breathing!

Posted by Kurt on 11/02 at 09:00 AM
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