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Sunday, January 18, 2004

Your one-stop prognostication center

For the record, it’s early afternoon here-- just shy of 1:30.  Now, this is what will happen later today:

Eagles 20 Panthers 10
Colts 27 Patriots 23 (it won’t really be that close, but at least the Colts will have to punt at some point in the game, for the first time in the postseason)

And this is what will happen tomorrow:

Kerry 26 Gephardt 22 Dean 22 Edwards 19 Colts 5 Kucinich 4 Sharpton 2

These predictions do not reflect my desires.  They are simply what will happen.  And yes, I’ll leave these up for a few days even if I find them terribly embarrassing.

Update, midnight: Well, I didn’t have to wait a few days, did I?  It, um, it appears that my picks for the Super Bowl simply couldn’t have been, er, any worse.  I completely forgot to factor in the statistic that teams who play in domes and go on the road to snowy northeastern stadiums and proceed to throw four interceptions, three to the same guy, in conference championship games have a cumulative winning percentage of .000.  As for the Eagles vs. the Visitors, I now owe Nick five bucks.  But Nick’s not the only one who took me today.  According to Google ("conference championship” + “chimpanzees” + “predictions"), I was beaten by 83.3 percent of all primates who were hooked up to laptops and asked to predict the NFC and AFC championship games on their blogs. 

On to Iowa!

Iowa update, midnight January 19: My prediction, I believe, was Kerry 26 Gephardt 22 Dean 22 Edwards 18 Colts 5 Kucinich 4 Sharpton 2

Actual Iowa results:  Kerry 38 Edwards 32 Dean 18 Gephardt 11 Kucinich 1.

So yes, I had Kerry winning, but that’s a little like saying I was right about the Colts needing to punt in Foxboro.  And OK, I was only four points off on Dean’s total, too.  But otherwise, I’m as stunned as anyone.  I thought Gephardt would be around for another two weeks; I thought Edwards’ late run was being oversold; I thought the Colts would show some more offense.

It appears that my man Dean will have to win convincingly in New Hampshire, and now I’m not at all sure he will (though, to repeat the mantra, I’d also be reasonably happy with Clark or Kerry, and I will have to think again about this Edwards).  Also: what does this mean for Clark?  Nothing good, I imagine.  And will Lieberman have the good sense to follow Gephardt’s lead, and bow out after he tanks in New Hampshire?

Posted by Michael on 01/18 at 07:11 AM
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